• 0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.1 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (5 gm)
• −0.0 wet forecast — averages 0.1 in the wet (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 11: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.