4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.7
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 30.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 5.4 there (14 gm)
vs them: averages 5.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackle Breaks
30.4per game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Suncorp Stadium5.4(14)-0.2
Everywhere else5.6(117)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)5.1(15)-0.5
Dry games5.6(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
-10%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIReece Walsh5.44-26%
07-31SGISetu Tu4.45+13%
07-19NQLBraidon Burns4.94-18%
07-19NQLTom Chester3.83-20%
07-05NEWDominic Young4.35+15%
07-05NEWGreg Marzhew4.85+4%
06-27WARTaine Tuaupiki4.24-5%
06-06NQLTom Chester3.82-47%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Dane's. Computed from this app's own records.