0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 5.2/game vs a 4.2 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 8: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Roycevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
62.6
37
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Royce 62.6/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
52
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Royce 1.5/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.8
33
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Royce 10.8/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
55
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Royce 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Royce 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
50
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Royce 0.2/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
56
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Royce 0.4/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.6
50
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Royce 26.6/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Royce62.6
37
SGI1925.5
100
Royce 62.6/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Royce1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tries
5.2per game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.1(91)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(5)-0.1
Dry games0.1(86)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tries
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+40%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth0.50-100%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.11+650%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako0.90-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock0.40-100%
07-31DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.92+131%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.20-100%
07-31DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.71+36%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Royce's. Computed from this app's own records.