1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 36.5/game vs a 32.7 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 1.1 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 1.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tackle Breaks
36.5per game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At CommBank Stadium1.1(19)+0.4
Everywhere else0.7(36)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(4)+0.2
Dry games0.8(51)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+1.2
Avg diff %
+53%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJayden Campbell2.51-60%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor2.16+186%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita2.56+140%
08-06GLDAJ Brimson1.93+54%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika1.21-17%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui1.85+174%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia1.42+43%
08-06GLDChris Randall1.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tallyn's. Computed from this app's own records.