1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 32.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackle Breaks
33.9per game · league avg 32.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Allianz Stadium0.5(2)-0.5
Everywhere else1.0(24)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.0
Dry games1.0(25)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
-18%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARLuca Moretti1.52+33%
08-08PARJack De Belin0.20-100%
08-08PARRonald Volkman2.13+41%
08-08PARMitchell Moses0.71+36%
08-08PARJack Williams2.22-7%
08-08PARKitione Kautoga2.03+50%
08-08PARJordan Samrani2.20-100%
08-08PARRyley Smith0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.