• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.