• 0.0 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.