0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 39.7/game vs a 32.8 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Tackle Breaks
39.7per game · league avg 32.8
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At CommBank Stadium1.0(3)-0.1
Everywhere else1.1(95)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.2(5)-0.9
Dry games1.1(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+16%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.40-100%
08-08SOUAdam Elliott0.20-100%
08-08SOUCody Walker1.42+41%
08-08SOUAshton Ward1.02+100%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith1.12+85%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi2.03+50%
08-08SOUJack Wighton2.04+100%
08-08SOUCameron Murray2.11-52%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.