1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.3
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4/game vs a 3.9 league average
−1.3 at this ground — averages 0 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 0.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
109.3
68
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Tom 109.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
81
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Tom 2.6/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
23.7
72
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Tom 23.7/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
59
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Tom 0.2/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
99
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Tom 1.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
86
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Tom 0.5/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
44
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Tom 0.3/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
35
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Tom 18.4/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tom109.3
68
GLD1851.3
94
Tom 109.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Tom2.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Line Break Assists
4.0per game · league avg 3.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At Cbus Super Stadium0.0(5)-0.6
Everywhere else0.6(115)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(7)-0.2
Dry games0.6(113)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-64%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.20-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.51+110%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns0.10-100%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.30-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.30-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford0.60-100%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater1.31-25%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.