• 1.1 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 39.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.