1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.3/game vs a 32.7 league average
−0.0 wet forecast — averages 1 in the wet (9 gm)
vs them: averages 1.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ethanvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
72.2
43
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Ethan 72.2/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
38
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Ethan 0.9/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
57
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Ethan 18.4/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
29
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Ethan 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Ethan 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Ethan 0.1/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
39
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Ethan 0.2/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.7
46
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
569.6
Ethan 24.7/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ethan72.2
43
MEL1698.3
50
Ethan 72.2/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Ethan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tackle Breaks
33.3per game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else1.4(125)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(9)-0.4
Dry games1.4(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+26%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYMax King1.31-24%
07-31CBYJacob Preston1.92+7%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton2.14+94%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin2.44+67%
07-31CBYBailey Hayward0.30-100%
07-31CBYLeo Thompson2.14+94%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama2.34+75%
07-31CBYJaeman Salmon1.11-9%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ethan's. Computed from this app's own records.
