0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.0 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 5/game vs a 3.9 league average
+0.0 wet forecast — averages 0 in the wet (10 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Coreyvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
89.3
55
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Corey 89.3/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
14
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Corey 0.3/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.0
51
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Corey 17.0/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Corey 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Corey 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Corey 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Corey 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.6
62
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
569.6
Corey 33.6/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Corey89.3
55
MEL1698.3
50
Corey 89.3/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Corey0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Line Break Assists
5.0per game · league avg 3.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.0(108)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(10)
Dry games0.0(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+4%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYEnari Tuala0.20-100%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin0.90-100%
07-31CBYJacob Kiraz0.30-100%
07-31CBYMatt Burton0.61+73%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama0.000%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton0.51+100%
07-31CBYConnor Tracey0.31+260%
07-31CBYMax King0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Corey's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown0.5