• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.1 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.