• 2.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.9 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 24.5/game vs a 23.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −2.7 wet forecast — averages 0 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.