• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.9/game vs a 3.9 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +0.0 wet forecast — averages 0.3 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.