• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 32.8/game vs a 32.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −0.4 wet forecast — averages 1.3 in the wet (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.