0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.1 league average
−0.1 wet forecast — averages 0.6 in the wet (7 gm)
vs them: averages 0.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11.5°C☂ 2.1mm (97%)🌬 16.5 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
159.6
92
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Tom 159.6/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
86
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Tom 3.1/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
6
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Tom 2.5/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
93
Triesfavorable
69
4.5
Tom 0.6/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
95
Try Assistsfavorable
63
3.6
Tom 0.7/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
80
Line Breaksfavorable
94
6.5
Tom 0.5/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
95
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Tom 1.5/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.3
71
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
569.6
Tom 38.3/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tom159.6
92
MEL1698.3
50
Tom 159.6/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Tom3.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tries
4.5per game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.8(85)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.6(7)-0.3
Dry games0.8(78)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Tries
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYEnari Tuala0.20-100%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin0.40-100%
07-31CBYJacob Kiraz0.60-100%
07-31CBYMatt Burton0.31+217%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama0.51+100%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton0.42+357%
07-31CBYConnor Tracey0.20-100%
07-31CBYMax King0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.
