1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 29.1/game vs a 32.8 league average
vs them: averages 3.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackle Breaks
29.1per game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Ocean Protect Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else2.4(90)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)3.6(14)+1.4
Dry games2.2(76)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+1.9
Avg diff %
+103%
Hit rate
8/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGITyrell Sloan1.94+106%
08-09SGIHamish Stewart1.12+90%
08-09SGIMoses Suli2.85+76%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes2.34+74%
08-09SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga1.62+25%
08-09SGIDylan Egan2.05+150%
08-09SGIClinton Gutherson1.56+292%
08-09SGIRyan Couchman2.73+12%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Xavier's. Computed from this app's own records.