0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 8.6/game vs a 9.7 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 23: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Dylanvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
79.3
48
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Dylan 79.3/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
65
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Dylan 2.0/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
41.9
99
Tacklesfavorable
88
354.8
Dylan 41.9/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
37
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Dylan 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
53
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Dylan 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Dylan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
31
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Dylan 0.2/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.3
59
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Dylan 31.3/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Dylan79.3
48
CRO1511.1
0
Dylan 79.3/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Dylan2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Offloads
8.6per game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Offloads
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.3(4)
Everywhere else0.2(17)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-0.3
Dry games0.3(20)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CRO · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-37%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGITyrell Sloan0.40-100%
08-09SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga0.10-100%
08-09SGIMoses Suli0.40-100%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes1.22+74%
08-09SGILyhkan King-Togia0.10-100%
08-09SGIKyle Flanagan0.10-100%
08-09SGIClinton Gutherson0.91+6%
08-09SGIEmre Guler0.41+125%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Dylan's. Computed from this app's own records.