0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.4/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.9 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (10 gm)
vs them: averages 2.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WST concede · Points
29.4per game · league avg 23.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium1.2(10)+0.7
Everywhere else0.5(108)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(6)-0.6
Dry games0.6(112)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WST · Points
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02PARJordan Samrani1.54+160%
08-02PARSam Tuivaiti0.000%
08-02PARBrian Kelly0.90-100%
08-02PARWill Penisini1.50-100%
08-02PARJosh Addo-Carr1.30-100%
08-02PARRonald Volkman1.80-100%
08-02PARIsaiah Iongi1.54+160%
08-02PARJack Williams0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luciano's. Computed from this app's own records.