0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 20.8/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.3 at this ground — averages 0 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lucianovs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
91.9
57
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Luciano 91.9/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
63
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Luciano 1.9/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.5
57
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Luciano 18.5/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
45
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Luciano 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Luciano 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
51
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Luciano 0.2/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
67
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Luciano 0.6/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.4
70
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Luciano 37.4/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Luciano91.9
57
CRO1511.1
0
Luciano 91.9/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Luciano1.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Points
20.8per game · league avg 23.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.0(4)-0.6
Everywhere else0.6(114)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(6)-0.6
Dry games0.6(112)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Points
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIKyle Flanagan0.30-100%
08-09SGIDylan Egan0.30-100%
08-09SGIMoses Suli0.70-100%
08-09SGILyhkan King-Togia0.000%
08-09SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga0.000%
08-09SGIEmre Guler0.20-100%
08-09SGIClinton Gutherson0.70-100%
08-09SGIHamish Stewart0.84+400%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luciano's. Computed from this app's own records.