0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.4/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 0 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 1.8 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 7: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WST concede · Points
29.4per game · league avg 23.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium0.0(5)-0.7
Everywhere else0.7(132)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(12)+0.7
Dry games0.7(125)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WST · Points
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02PARJordan Samrani1.54+160%
08-02PARSam Tuivaiti0.000%
08-02PARBrian Kelly0.90-100%
08-02PARWill Penisini1.50-100%
08-02PARJosh Addo-Carr1.30-100%
08-02PARRonald Volkman1.80-100%
08-02PARIsaiah Iongi1.54+160%
08-02PARJack Williams0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Damien's. Computed from this app's own records.