1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.3
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 8.5/game vs a 9.7 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tobyvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
141.9
85
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Toby 141.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
62
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Toby 1.8/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
98
Tacklesfavorable
81
352.1
Toby 40.8/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Toby 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Toby 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Toby 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
86
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Toby 1.0/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
56.2
95
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Toby 56.2/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Toby141.9
85
CRO1504.1
0
Toby 141.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Toby1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Offloads
8.5per game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Offloads
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium1.8(4)+1.1
Everywhere else0.6(59)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(5)-0.8
Dry games0.8(58)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+207%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOUJack Wighton0.31+250%
08-02SOUAshton Ward0.31+225%
08-02SOUAlex Johnston0.50-100%
08-02SOULatrell Siegwalt0.21+333%
08-02SOUCampbell Graham0.83+282%
08-02SOUCody Walker0.62+217%
08-02SOUMatthew Dufty0.21+550%
08-02SOUTevita Tatola0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Toby's. Computed from this app's own records.