6.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.4 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.6
−0.9 opponent leak — they concede 20.6/game vs a 23.6 league average
−0.4 at this ground — averages 6.5 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 8.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 18 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o6.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.1°C☂ 0.5mm (79%)🌬 17.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Valentinevs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
128.6
78
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Valentine 128.6/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1690.9
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.2
72
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Valentine 2.2/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.1
36
Tacklesneutral
69
352.1
Valentine 12.1/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
84
Triesunfavorable
25
3.7
Valentine 0.4/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Valentine 0.4/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
91
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Valentine 0.7/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
89
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Valentine 1.1/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
77
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Valentine 40.8/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 545.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Valentine128.6
78
CRO1504.1
0
Valentine 128.6/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1690.9
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Valentine2.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Points
20.6per game · league avg 23.6
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium6.5(4)-2.3
Everywhere else8.8(115)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)7.0(4)-1.8
Dry games8.8(115)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Points
Avg diff
+0.9
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOUAlex Johnston5.54-27%
08-02SOULatrell Siegwalt4.98+63%
07-26MANJamal Fogarty6.54-39%
05-29MANJamal Fogarty6.54-39%
05-15CBYStephen Crichton6.96-13%
05-09SOUAlex Johnston5.512+118%
05-09SOULatrell Siegwalt4.912+144%
05-03WSTAdam Doueihi6.04-33%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Valentine's. Computed from this app's own records.