0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 8.5/game vs a 9.8 league average
−0.4 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (79%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Valentinevs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
128.6
78
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Valentine 128.6/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1690.9
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.2
72
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Valentine 2.2/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.1
36
Tacklesneutral
69
352.1
Valentine 12.1/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
84
Triesunfavorable
25
3.7
Valentine 0.4/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Valentine 0.4/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
91
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Valentine 0.7/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
89
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Valentine 1.1/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
77
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Valentine 40.8/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 545.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Valentine128.6
78
CRO1504.1
0
Valentine 128.6/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1690.9
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Valentine2.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Offloads
8.5per game · league avg 9.8
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Offloads
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.5(4)-0.4
Everywhere else0.9(115)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(4)-0.9
Dry games0.9(115)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.7
Avg diff %
+193%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOUJack Wighton0.31+225%
08-02SOUAshton Ward0.31+200%
08-02SOUAlex Johnston0.50-100%
08-02SOULatrell Siegwalt0.21+333%
08-02SOUCampbell Graham0.83+282%
08-02SOUCody Walker0.72+200%
08-02SOUMatthew Dufty0.21+500%
08-02SOUTevita Tatola0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Valentine's. Computed from this app's own records.