• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.