0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 6.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 0.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 14: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Line Breaks
6.5per game · league avg 5.1
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Allianz Stadium0.1(8)-0.1
Everywhere else0.2(124)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.1(15)-0.2
Dry games0.2(117)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+6%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUCody Walker0.51+90%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith0.31+300%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan0.70-100%
08-08SOUJack Wighton0.20-100%
08-08SOUAshton Ward0.10-100%
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.10-100%
08-08SOUMatthew Dufty0.82+160%
08-08SOUDavid Fifita0.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Keaon's. Computed from this app's own records.