• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.8/game vs a 32.8 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.3 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.