0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 25.8/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 1 there (4 gm)
wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBR concede · Points
25.8per game · league avg 23.7
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At GIO Stadium1.0(4)+0.3
Everywhere else0.7(73)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(3)+0.7
Dry games0.6(74)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CBR · Points
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09NEWFrancis Manuleleua0.30-100%
08-09NEWCody Hopwood0.000%
08-09NEWTrey Mooney1.10-100%
08-09NEWJermaine McEwen0.20-100%
08-09NEWMat Croker0.20-100%
08-09NEWHarrison Graham0.50-100%
08-09NEWDane Gagai0.64+567%
08-09NEWFletcher Hunt1.50-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.