0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 8.5/game vs a 9.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 20: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Thomasvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
86.5
53
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Thomas 86.5/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
25
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Thomas 0.6/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.6
74
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Thomas 24.6/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Thomas 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
24
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.0
61
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Thomas 33.0/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Thomas86.5
53
SGI1914.7
100
Thomas 86.5/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Thomas0.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Offloads
8.5per game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Offloads
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.0(1)-0.1
Everywhere else0.1(76)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-0.1
Dry games0.1(74)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Offloads
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-11%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROMawene Hiroti0.000%
08-09CRONicho Hynes1.50-100%
08-09CROSione Katoa0.50-100%
08-09CROJesse Ramien0.91+8%
08-09CRORonaldo Mulitalo1.41-27%
08-09CROBraydon Trindall0.51+122%
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy0.30-100%
08-09CROAddin Fonua-Blake0.92+112%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.