0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 5.4/game vs a 5.1 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 0.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 19: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBR concede · Line Breaks
5.4per game · league avg 5.1
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Ocean Protect Stadium0.0(8)-0.2
Everywhere else0.2(69)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(3)+0.1
Dry games0.2(74)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CBR · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09NEWGreg Marzhew1.10-100%
08-09NEWTrey Mooney0.30-100%
08-09NEWDominic Young1.65+218%
08-09NEWDane Gagai0.51+122%
08-09NEWFletcher Sharpe0.51+90%
08-09NEWSandon Smith0.10-100%
08-09NEWKalyn Ponga0.50-100%
08-09NEWJermaine McEwen0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.