0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.7/game vs a 5.1 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nathanvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
100.2
62
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Nathan 100.2/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1687.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.4
76
Tackle Breaksfavorable
81
34.4
Nathan 2.4/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.1
62
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Nathan 20.1/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
78
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Nathan 0.4/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
100
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Nathan 1.4/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
93
Line Breaksneutral
44
4.7
Nathan 0.8/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
90
Offloadsfavorable
69
10.2
Nathan 1.1/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.8
38
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Nathan 19.8/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Nathan100.2
62
WAR1543.0
13
Nathan 100.2/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1687.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Nathan2.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Line Breaks
4.7per game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Go Media Stadium0.0(2)-0.4
Everywhere else0.4(109)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(9)
Dry games0.4(102)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+20%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.21+400%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.20-100%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins1.52+38%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.50-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.81+20%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.10-100%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar1.02+100%
08-07PENLindsay Smith0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Nathan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5