• 1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.2 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 3.3/game vs a 3.9 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.9 there (20 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.