1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 16.2/game vs a 23.7 league average
+1.0 at this ground — averages 2 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 1.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Blaizevs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
77.3
46
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Blaize 77.3/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
64
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Blaize 1.9/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.2
64
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Blaize 21.2/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
69
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Blaize 0.3/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Blaize 0.4/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
69
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Blaize 0.3/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
78
Offloadsfavorable
69
10.2
Blaize 0.7/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.2
38
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Blaize 20.2/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Blaize77.3
46
WAR1543.0
13
Blaize 77.3/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Blaize1.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Points
16.2per game · league avg 23.7
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Go Media Stadium2.0(4)+0.7
Everywhere else1.3(60)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(4)+0.7
Dry games1.3(60)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Points
Avg diff
-1.1
Avg diff %
-87%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENMoses Leota0.000%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i0.60-100%
08-07PENIzack Tago0.60-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o2.40-100%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.80-100%
08-07PENLindsay Smith0.60-100%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti2.10-100%
08-07PENLiam Martin1.70-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Blaize's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry1.5