0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 19: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Tries
4.5per game · league avg 4.2
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At Suncorp Stadium0.3(3)+0.2
Everywhere else0.1(27)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)+0.9
Dry games0.1(29)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs BRI · Tries
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-11%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLHerbie Farnworth0.51+111%
08-08DOLIsaiya Katoa0.10-100%
08-08DOLJamayne Isaako0.91+11%
08-08DOLJack Bostock0.40-100%
08-08DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.91+15%
08-08DOLKodi Nikorima0.20-100%
08-08DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.72+173%
08-08DOLThomas Flegler0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.