• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 8.1/game vs a 9.7 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (20 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.