• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 31.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
• +1.2 at this ground — averages 1.6 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.