0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (38 gm)
vs them: averages 0.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Waydevs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
49.7
28
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Wayde 49.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
18
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Wayde 0.4/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.5
86
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Wayde 31.5/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Wayde 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
84
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Wayde 0.4/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
59
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Wayde 0.3/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
68
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Wayde 0.6/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.6
24
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Wayde 12.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Wayde49.7
28
PEN1576.6
25
Wayde 49.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Wayde0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Points
15.1per game · league avg 23.7
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Go Media Stadium0.2(38)-0.5
Everywhere else0.8(85)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(7)-0.6
Dry games0.6(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Points
Avg diff
+1.6
Avg diff %
+75%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARMitchell Barnett0.000%
08-07WARErin Clark1.04+300%
08-07WARLeka Halasima1.40-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.50-100%
08-07WARKurt Capewell0.80-100%
08-07WARJacob Laban0.80-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.90-100%
08-07WARLuke Metcalf1.816+800%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Wayde's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry1.5