0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.6/game vs a 4.1 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (23 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Rogervs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
152.3
89
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Roger 152.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1690.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
74
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
31
31.4
Roger 2.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.4
23
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Roger 6.4/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
61
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Roger 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Roger 0.5/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Roger 0.5/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
45
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.1
Roger 0.3/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
52.5
91
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Roger 52.5/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 545.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Roger152.3
89
PEN1576.6
25
Roger 152.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1690.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Roger2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Tries
2.6per game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tries
At Go Media Stadium0.3(23)-0.1
Everywhere else0.4(42)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(5)+0.1
Dry games0.3(60)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Tries
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-42%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima0.40-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.10-100%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak0.90-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.20-100%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira0.90-100%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita0.31+217%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad0.71+44%
08-07WARWayde Egan0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Roger's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5