0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (20 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Kurtvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
87.0
53
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Kurt 87.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
45
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Kurt 1.2/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.7
87
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Kurt 31.7/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Kurt 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
71
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Kurt 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Kurt 0.3/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
68
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Kurt 0.6/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
36.2
68
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Kurt 36.2/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Kurt87.0
53
PEN1576.6
25
Kurt 87.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Kurt1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Points
15.1per game · league avg 23.7
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Go Media Stadium0.6(20)-0.3
Everywhere else0.9(96)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(6)+0.5
Dry games0.8(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Points
Avg diff
+1.6
Avg diff %
+75%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARWayde Egan0.40-100%
08-07WARErin Clark1.04+300%
08-07WARLeka Halasima1.40-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.50-100%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett0.000%
08-07WARJacob Laban0.80-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.90-100%
08-07WARLuke Metcalf1.816+800%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Kurt's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry1.5