• 0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 22.9/game vs a 23.7 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 1 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.