• 0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 31.9/game vs a 32.7 league average
• +0.1 wet forecast — averages 0.4 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.