• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.4 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.4
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 31.9/game vs a 32.7 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.