• 0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.8/game vs a 4.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −0.0 wet forecast — averages 0.1 in the wet (11 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.1 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 20: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.