0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.1/game vs a 5.1 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (24 gm)
vs them: averages 0.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.5°C☂ 0mm (31%)🌬 11.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Stefanovs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
129.8
80
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Stefano 129.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.5
96
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Stefano 4.5/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.9
82
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Stefano 28.9/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Stefano 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
38
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Stefano 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Stefano 0.2/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
91
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Stefano 1.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
53.6
93
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Stefano 53.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Stefano129.8
80
PEN1576.6
25
Stefano 129.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Stefano4.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Line Breaks
4.1per game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At AAMI Park0.1(24)
Everywhere else0.2(97)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.1(11)-0.1
Dry games0.2(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+33%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima0.41+183%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.10-100%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak0.80-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.40-100%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira1.11-12%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita0.21+375%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad0.92+117%
08-07WARWayde Egan0.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Stefano's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5