• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 21.9/game vs a 23.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +0.4 wet forecast — averages 1.8 in the wet (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.