0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.8/game vs a 32.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Grantvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
67.5
40
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Grant 67.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
28
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Grant 0.7/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.4
19
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Grant 5.4/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Grant 0.2/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
52
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Grant 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
48
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Grant 0.2/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
53
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Grant 0.4/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.8
39
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Grant 20.8/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Grant67.5
40
GLD1851.3
94
Grant 67.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Grant0.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tackle Breaks
34.8per game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium0.0(1)-1.3
Everywhere else1.3(74)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(5)-0.3
Dry games1.3(70)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
-14%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.40-100%
08-06NQLKai O'Donnell0.20-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.10-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford2.03+54%
08-06NQLSoni Luke0.61+80%
08-06NQLHeilum Luki2.15+133%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt1.62+23%
08-06NQLReuben Cotter0.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.