0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 22.4/game vs a 23.6 league average
+0.5 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (17 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 17: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Points
22.4per game · league avg 23.6
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At Suncorp Stadium1.2(17)-0.2
Everywhere else1.4(57)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)2.4(5)+1.1
Dry games1.3(69)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Points
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+39%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31SGIKyle Flanagan0.30-100%
07-31SGIToby Couchman0.000%
07-31SGISetu Tu2.14+89%
07-31SGITyrell Sloan2.14+88%
07-31SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga0.000%
07-31SGIDamien Cook0.40-100%
07-31SGIClinton Gutherson0.84+433%
07-31SGIDylan Egan0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.