• 3.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.0
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 25.6/game vs a 23.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 5.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.