• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.6/game vs a 3.9 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.